Trump’s Foreign Policy and the Shifting Global Order: How can South Africa respond strategically

 As global power structures evolve, where does South Africa stand? The foreign policy of the United States, particularly under President Donald Trump, is reshaping alliances and challenging traditional diplomatic and economic priorities. While Trump’s rhetoric often appeared erratic, his administration pursued a clear strategic pattern—reducing commitments to NATO, Ukraine, and Iran while reinforcing US dominance through financial and trade mechanisms. These shifts create new geopolitical fault lines, forcing emerging economies like South Africa to rethink how to navigate an increasingly unpredictable world.

America First: A New Model of US Influence

Trump’s "America First" doctrine marks a departure from traditional US priorities, shifting emphasis from military intervention to economic leverage. His administration seeks to reshape global financial structures, particularly through engagement with Russia and efforts to weaken BRICS by driving a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.

In the Middle East, Trump’s policies is bolstering Israel’s regional dominance, enabling Washington to redirect its strategic focus toward the Western Hemisphere. Meanwhile, in Asia, his administration promotes trade relationships with US-aligned economies to reduce dependence on China, though these policies are also placing economic strain on Washington’s own allies.

Africa’s Role in a Changing Global Economy

Amid this restructuring, Africa remains largely absent from direct US strategic focus. The continent holds immense economic potential, with one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets and significant investment opportunities in infrastructure and digital services. While Europe sees Africa as central to its future and China has embedded itself deeply in African economies, Trump’s policies signaled a calculated US retreat rather than an attempt to compete for influence.

For South Africa, this shift presents both risks and opportunities. The country’s leadership in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel, rooted in its anti-apartheid legacy, aligns it with Global South interests. However, this position also risks diplomatic and economic retaliation from Washington. Under an "America First" framework, which prioritizes US-Israel ties and economic nationalism, South Africa may face heightened trade and financial pressures. To avoid diplomatic and economic marginalization, Pretoria must strengthen regional alliances, deepen economic ties with Latin America and progressive European nations, and reinforce its role within BRICS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to mitigate trade volatility.

South Africa’s Internal Challenges: A Nation in Transition

South Africa’s global position is shaped as much by its internal contradictions as by external forces. The country faces a stark choice: implement meaningful reforms and reaffirm its leadership in Africa, or continue along a path of stagnation.

Deep economic inequalities, entrenched injustices, and an overreliance on speculative capital flows have left South Africa politically fragile and economically vulnerable. Corruption, governance failures, and an unstable energy sector have further undermined investor confidence, while unresolved issues of land reform and historical dispossession fuel persistent social unrest. These challenges are not just economic obstacles but barriers to the country’s ability to define its own destiny.

Lessons from Zimbabwe: Reform Without Stability is Risky

The difficulty of economic reform in Africa is starkly illustrated by Zimbabwe’s failed land redistribution policies. In the early 2000s, Zimbabwe pursued radical land reforms without adequate economic safeguards, leading to currency collapse, mass displacement, and an eventual reversal of policies. Widespread corruption exacerbated the crisis, benefiting political elites while devastating the broader economy.

Ironically, South Africa now hosts a vast Zimbabwean diaspora, many of whom fled the very policies their government once championed. This highlights the immense pressure on African nations seeking transformation—poorly managed reforms risk economic collapse, while inaction perpetuates inequality and instability.

Western Financial Pressures: Who Controls the Narrative?

Beyond internal missteps, Zimbabwe’s collapse also demonstrated how external forces shape African economic policies. Western institutions often use financial leverage—through sanctions, aid withdrawal, and trade restrictions—to discipline non-compliant states under the guise of economic accountability.

South Africa faces similar risks should it pursue radical economic reforms without economic resilience. However, part of what hinders African nations is the rigid application of Western-defined metrics of governance. These frameworks often prioritize fiscal discipline and investor confidence over social justice and equitable economic participation.

Moreover, these standards are frequently used as a cudgel—justifying punitive economic measures that reinforce dependency and stifle independent policymaking. African nations must define success on their own terms, prioritizing long-term stability and historical justice over short-term approval from global financial institutions.

The Impact of Global Shifts on South Africa’s Future

Even if South Africa achieves internal consensus on reform, its trajectory will still be shaped by global economic realignments. Trump’s "America First" doctrine prioritizes economic nationalism and financial coercion, increasing risks for nations that failed to align with Western economic interests. This places South Africa in a challenging position, where its economic policies will be judged within the context of intensifying global competition.

BRICS: Can South Africa Lead?

A renewed US protectionist stance would likely weaken BRICS, making South Africa’s role in the bloc even more critical. However, BRICS itself faces internal fractures, with diverging national interests among its members. To maximize its influence, South Africa must secure a leadership role within BRICS by leveraging its strategic advantages.

South Africa’s best chance at leadership lies in consolidating its influence in Africa—particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa—where it holds deep economic and diplomatic ties. By positioning itself as the primary gateway for intra-African trade, South Africa can help transform Africa into a cohesive economic bloc within BRICS, strengthening its strategic position.

Expanding its banking, mining, and infrastructure footprint across the continent would further solidify its role as a conduit between BRICS and Africa. South Africa is uniquely positioned to champion an African economic model that prioritizes historical justice, fair trade terms, and financial autonomy from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. By successfully advocating for these principles, Pretoria can assert itself as the voice of Africa within BRICS, ensuring that the bloc serves African interests rather than just those of its larger members.

AfCFTA: A Path to Economic Sovereignty

At the same time, South Africa must navigate its role within AfCFTA, which presents an opportunity for greater African economic integration. If leveraged effectively, AfCFTA could reduce dependence on Western financial institutions and promote intra-African trade and investment. However, this requires strong leadership and decisive economic policies—something South Africa has struggled to assert in recent years.

The Path Forward: Strategic Choices for South Africa

South Africa’s future will be shaped by the decisions it makes now. It stands at a defining moment—either it asserts itself as a leader within Africa and BRICS, or it risks geopolitical irrelevance.

Scenario 1: Strategic Reform and Regional Leadership

If South Africa is to lead in Africa and within BRICS, it must enact deep structural reforms to tackle inequality, corruption, and governance failures—without them, investor confidence will remain low, and internal unrest will continue to fester. Driving AfCFTA’s implementation would position South Africa as the gateway for intra-African trade, strengthening its bargaining power within BRICS and securing its role as Africa’s primary economic voice.

Scenario 2: Hesitation and Decline

Failure to reform will leave South Africa trapped in stagnation, where corruption, inefficiency, and economic mismanagement will deter investment and deepen inequality. Marginalisation within BRICS will follow, as China, India, and Russia dictate the bloc’s agenda while South Africa fades into irrelevance.

Ultimately, South Africa’s success depends on its ability to prioritize long-term sovereignty over short-term stability. The opportunity is there—but will South Africa seize it?